Who will win Euro 2024? The candidate's portrait is gradually revealed

The ball of Euro 2024 is rolling on the fields of Germany, with top, attractive matches and many unexpected results, when the “big guys” suffer defeat or struggle to win against the teams. The ball is rated weaker. After the opening matches, surely football fans have made their own comments and predictions about the team that will win the championship. So who will win Euro 2024? Right now wintips will reveal the portrait of the team predicted by most experts.

General information about Euro 2024

Euro 2024 is the 17th European football championship, which will take place in Germany from June 14 to July 14, 2024. This is the second time Germany has hosted the Euro, the first time being in 1988. Germany also hosted the 1974 and 2006 World Cups. The tournament will be held in 10 stadiums in 10 different cities, including Berlin, Munich, Dortmund, Stuttgart, Hamburg, Leipzig, Cologne, Gelsenkirchen, Frankfurt and Düsseldorf . These locations are all modern stadiums, meeting international standards, promising to bring dramatic and exciting matches.

A total of 24 national teams will participate in Euro 2024, similar to recent Euros since 2016. Teams will have to go through qualifying rounds to win tickets to the tournament. The qualifying round begins in March 2023 and ends in November 2023. Teams will compete to determine the 23 qualifying spots, with home team Germany receiving special treatment without qualifying. The qualifying round promises to be very competitive as all teams want the opportunity to compete in one of the most prestigious tournaments in the world.

Euro 2024 will include the following main rounds: group stage, round of 16, quarter-finals, semi-finals and finals. 24 teams will be divided into 6 groups, each group has 4 teams. The top two teams in each group and the four best third-placed teams will advance to the round of 16. From there, the teams will compete in knockout matches until a champion is found. This structure not only increases the attractiveness of the tournament but also gives teams many opportunities to express themselves.

Euro 2024 will use the VAR (Video Assistant Referee) system to support referee decisions on the field, ensuring fairness and transparency. This system has been applied at many major tournaments before and has proven effective in minimizing errors in referee decisions. The use of VAR promises to bring fairer matches and reduce unnecessary controversies, contributing to improving the quality of the tournament.

Euro 2024 is not only a playground for top European teams such as Germany, France, Spain, Italy, England and Belgium, but also an opportunity for other teams to shine. These strong teams are always considered the top contenders for the championship, but football always has surprises and other teams also have a chance to make history. Euro is one of the world’s leading football tournaments, second only to the World Cup in terms of reputation and influence. This tournament is not only a place for Europe’s top teams to compete, but also an opportunity for young talents to shine on the big stage. Euro 2024 promises to bring dramatic matches, memorable moments and fierce competition between Europe’s top teams.

Euro 2024 who will win – Top candidate

1. England team

England have often entered major tournaments over the past two decades as worthy contenders for the title in this Euro 2024 season, but entering as favorites will is a new experience for this squad full of attacking talent. Led by Bayern Munich striker Harry Kane, Real Madrid talisman Jude Bellingham – fresh from Champions League glory – and Manchester City star Phil Foden, there is no defense at the Euros they want to go up against. with him.

England’s group includes Denmark, Serbia and Slovenia, which is not expected to cause them major difficulties in terms of promotion, with the possibility of reaching the round of 16 (95.4%) almost certain. However, being top of the group may be more important in this group than in the others, as the runner-up of Group C will have to play the winner of Group A – likely hosts Germany – in the round of 16.

A fast and strong start could therefore be crucial to the Three Lions’ hopes. A favorable start not only helps them avoid strong opponents in the early knockout round but also creates good psychological momentum for the next matches. England have all the necessary ingredients to go far at Euro 2024, and fans are expecting an impressive performance from this team.

England are an experienced team at the European Championships, having played a total of 38 matches in the tournament. However, success still eludes them, and no team has played as many matches as them without ever winning the event.

There is a 70.0% chance of England reaching the quarter-finals for the third time in the last four Euros, and they have a 48.2% chance of reaching the semi-finals, higher than any other team. In our tournament simulations for 2024, England repeat as finalists in almost a third (31.1%) of the times and have a 19.9% ​​chance of becoming champions.

If they want to go all the way, England may have to break the penalty curse. Of the teams that have participated in at least two penalty shootouts at the Euros, England have the lowest success rate, winning just one out of five matches. However, excluding penalties, England have lost just one of their last 18 European Championship matches – the infamous loss to Iceland in 2016. With captain Kane impressing for Bayern this season and Boasting an excellent scoring record at major tournaments, rival teams know that toppling England could be key to their chances of Euro glory.

2. French team

Who will win euro 2024? The supercomputer ranked two teams much higher than the remaining teams to participate in the Euro. Like England, France really wants to continue and is only slightly behind the Three Lions. The potential semi-final between England and France could be as decisive as it is dramatic, with the back-and-forth battle between the teams in the World Cup quarter-finals still fresh in the memory, especially for Kane, who missed one of his penalties. Kane and French star Kylian Mbappé have each scored 12 goals in 18 games in the last three major international tournaments, which is more than any other European player has scored in those events.

Antoine Griezmann also impressed at major tournaments. Since Euro 2016, he has been directly involved in more goals (18) than any other European player, scoring 11 goals and providing seven assists in 25 matches at the World Cup and Euros. Les Bleus boss Didier Deschamps also has a good record. If he lifts the trophy at Euro 2024, he will become the first person to win the World Cup and European championship as a player and head coach.

Deschamps and France achieved a respectable performance in 19.1% of our simulations, second only to England. They progress to the final 30.4% of the time and to the semi-finals 48.1% of the time. It would be a significant surprise if France do not at least reach the last eight (69.2%), even if the Day 2 match against the Netherlands provides an early test. If they top Group D, which they did in more than half (57.9%) of our simulations, a last-16 clash with Group F runners-up is unlikely to cause much concern. afraid, unless Portugal happens to fall into the runner-up position.

With a strong squad and Deschamps’ experience, France has a great chance to advance deeply at Euro 2024. Their ability to win depends not only on the individual skills of the players but also on smart tactics and determination. Clever direction from Deschamps, who could make history by winning both the World Cup and the Euros as a player and head coach.

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Who will win the euro 2024 – Other Euro 2024 candidates

1. German team

While England are the favorites, the history of the European Championship has seen 10 of the 16 titles go to Germany, Spain, France or Italy. Therefore, any team other than this quartet needs to put in a stellar performance to lift the trophy. One of the strong candidates is Germany, although they have gone through a difficult decade in major tournaments since winning the 2014 World Cup and suffered many defeats in friendly matches after a poor campaign at the World Cup. Qatar. Germany will enter their 14th European Championship with home advantage and are considered the third most likely team to win.

Surprisingly, Germany have not won a knockout match at a major international tournament since Euro 2016. They have also not kept a clean sheet since their last-16 match against Slovakia at that event, extending their streak. Conceding 12 consecutive matches at the World Cup and Euro. They were eliminated in the group stages of the last two World Cups and in the round of 16 at Euro 2020. With high expectations and pressure from playing at home, Julian Nagelsmann will face many challenges.

Germany may need exceptional performances from veteran stars like Manuel Neuer, Toni Kroos, Ilkay Gündogan and Thomas Müller. Müller has scored 10 goals at the World Cup, but has not appeared in 15 matches at the Euros, so he will need support from strikers such as Arsenal’s Kai Havertz and Borussia Dortmund’s Niclas Füllkrug.

Germany have a 36.5% chance of reaching the semi-finals, with a significant gap between them and the teams below (Spain and Portugal). Germany are the only team other than England and France that are likely to win the tournament in more than 10% of our simulations, coming in at 12.4%. So even though the narrative surrounding Germany suggests they could be in trouble, the supercomputer insists they should not be written off, with friendly wins over France and the Netherlands in March providing fair warning for other teams.

2. Spain team

Who will win Euro 2024? Spain will participate in Group B in fierce competition with Italy, Croatia and Albania. Known for its three previous wins, La Roja is the favorite in this group by Supercomputer Opta to vie for glory, despite only winning this tough group by 47.3%.

Our prediction model shows Spain as champions in 9.6% of our simulations and they are 59.1% likely to reach at least the quarter-finals. Barring penalty shootouts, Spain have lost just two of their last 22 matches at the Euros, although those defeats came at the hands of two current group rivals – Croatia and Italy – in the 2016 tournament.

Despite not being at their best previously, Spain were rarely beaten easily. Their recent knockout matches at major tournaments have often gone to extra time, with four of these being decided by penalty shootouts, with three of them being defeats. So their recent record at the World Cup and Euros could have been much better with a little more luck from the 12-footer.

Álvaro Morata scored six goals across Euro 2016 and Euro 2020, a number behind only Cristiano Ronaldo (8) and Atlético Madrid teammate Antoine Griezmann (7). After a successful season with Atlético in 2023-24 in which he scored 21 goals, Morata will captain Luis de la Fuente’s star squad at Euro 2024.

3. Portuguese team

Eliminating Portugal before the ball has even been kicked is a foolish decision. Interestingly, while Spain are considered more likely to win the tournament than Portugal, Roberto Martinez’s team have a better chance of reaching the semi-finals – this is a conditional probability based on Each team’s potential path to the semi-finals and beyond the group stage.

In our prediction model, Portugal achieved this in 33.6% of cases, partly because they were predicted to dominate Group F, which includes the Czech Republic, Türkiye and Georgia. They finish top in 18.0% of cases and win in 9.2% of our predictions. Star competing for the Golden Boot Ronaldo holds the record for most appearances (25) and most goals (14) at Euro tournaments, with a total of 6 assists, an achievement unmatched by any other player. not surpassed since 1972. Now, he is aiming to score in six consecutive Euros, a tournament record.

Aided by the Al-Nassr striker’s recent goals, Portugal are the only team to have reached the knockout stages in each of the most recent Euros, stretching back to 1996. They have a perfect record. of progressing to the knock-out round from the group in all eight previous appearances, and our model has helped them progress to the round of 16 for the ninth time this year with a rate of 93.6%.

Portugal qualified strongly. They are the only team to win every match, scoring more goals than any other team (36) in 10 wins, while also holding the best defensive record with just 2 goals conceded. Manchester United star Bruno Fernandes enters the tournament in high form after winning the FA Cup. During qualifying, he led the way in assists (7), expected assists (6.1), chances created (37) and open chances from free play (24). France’s Fernandes and Mbappé were the only two players to have more than five goals and more than five assists throughout qualifying – with Fernandes scoring six goals on top of his excellent creative statistics.

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Top 3 candidates with more than 10% advance to the Euro final

Who will win the euros 2024? The only remaining teams with a greater than 10% chance of reaching the Euro final are the Netherlands, defending champions Italy and Belgium.

1. Dutch team

The Netherlands last won the Euro championship in 1988 when the tournament took place exclusively in Germany. Since then, however, they have gone through difficult challenges, failing to advance to the semi-finals since 2004. Before this year’s tournament, the Netherlands’ main goal was to reach the quarter-finals, and according to the model predictably, they have a 45.8% chance of achieving this. Although this is lower than that of Italy and Belgium, if the Netherlands can progress to the last four they will have a better chance of facing and overcoming the top teams in the crucial stages. importance of the tournament.

According to our simulation, the Netherlands’ odds of reaching the final are 11.4%. At the Euros, the Netherlands scored a total of 65 goals in 39 matches, with an average rate of 1.67 goals per match. This makes the Netherlands the team with the highest scoring rate in the tournament compared to any other team.

2. Italian team

The two most recent defending champions, Spain, who defended their title from 2012 to 2016, and Portugal at Euro 2020, failed to get past the round of 16. Supercomputer Opta believes Italy is at risk of suffering a similar fate. Spain is the only team to have ever successfully defended the Euro championship (in 2012), so history shows that Italy repeating the victory will be a difficult task.

However, as difficult as defending the title may seem, Italy are one of the nations that can achieve a variety of results, depending on the strength of the opponents they face going into the knockout stages. next. The Azzurri have just a 29% chance of finishing top of the group, but still have 80.3% odds of progressing to the first knockout round. The last 16 could be a huge challenge, with just a 47.2% chance of them progressing to the quarter-finals according to our model.

However, if they progress to the last eight, few teams will want to face Italy, and there is still an 11.4% chance of Luciano Spalletti’s team progressing to the final. If that happens, it will be a good sign. The climactic match will be played at Olympiastadion Berlin, and Italy has won major international tournaments there twice before, most recently in the 2006 World Cup final.

3. Belgium team

Belgium have failed to reach the finals of the last four Euros, since they were runners-up in 1980, but they have returned in the final in 10.6% of our simulations. Kevin De Bruyne returned to form and fitness for Manchester City at the end of the Premier League season, so he will once again prove his importance for Belgium. No European player has more than nine assists in major international tournaments than De Bruyne has assisted since the 2014 FIFA World Cup, including five from the Euros.

Meanwhile, Romelu Lukaku became the top scorer in the qualifying campaign, with 14 goals in eight matches, scoring on average every 39 minutes and taking almost half of the shots he took. presently.

Conclude

Based on analysis and data, we have decoded who will win Euro 2024? Euro 2024 promises to be a fierce competition between Europe’s top teams. France, with the presence of stars such as Kylian Mbappé, and England, under the guidance of Gareth Southgate and the brilliance of Harry Kane, are considered two bright candidates for the title. However, Germany and Spain, with their history of success and the strength of their squads, will also be formidable opponents that cannot be ignored. With each team having its own advantages, determining the champion team will be a difficult task and promises to bring fans dramatic and emotional matches!

See more: Who is hosting Euro 2024 – Information about Euro 2024